My MLS expansion predictions/guesses circa 2016-01-30:

My MLS expansion predictions/guesses circa 2016-01-30: 

Edit 2017-02-21: Some updated thoughts. Las Vegas is probably out for good; Sheldon Adelson is no longer involved with the effort to build an NFL stadium in Las Vegas for the Oakland Raiders, so that removes one option for David Beckham if/when he finally gives up on Miami. St. Louis is up for a vote for government money for their SSS; if it passes that moves them up. Detroit owners are trying to get a site in Detroit for their SSS; if they get it that moves them up. 

Assuming that St. Louis and Detroit get their SSS situations in order, I would change my predictions to the following: 

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Sacramento Republic
Detroit
St. Louis
San Diego 

If Detroit gets their SSS and St. Louis does not, or vice versa, then you could move San Antonio or one of the other dark horses up on to the list. If both Detroit and St. Louis fail to get their SSS, then San Antonio and whoever else amongst the dark horses gets a serious SSS plan would move up.

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(Made some updates late Jan.30th/early Jan. 31st as Detroit announced they are still intending to buy land for stadium, and Indy Eleven put in a last minute bid for MLS expansion before the Jan. 31st deadline.)

Top TV markets for 2017:

http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/us/en/docs/solutions/measurement/television/2016-2017-nielsen-local-dma-ranks.pdf

Below are the top 40 TV markets, which do not have MLS teams; 13 of them are vying for MLS expansion; Miami plus 12 others applying by the Jan. 31st deadline:

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) - 11th.
Phoenix (Prescott) - 12th.
Detroit - 13th.
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale - 16th.
Cleveland-Akron (Canton) - 19th. (Not applying for MLS expansion)
Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto -20th.
St. Louis - 21st.
Charlotte - 22nd.
Pittsburgh - 23rd. (Not applying for MLS expansion)
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle) -24th.
Baltimore - 26th (Not applying for MLS expansion) 
Indianapolis - 27th.
San Diego - 28th.
Nashville - 29th.
Hartford & New Haven - 30th. (Not applying for MLS expansion)
San Antonio - 31st.
Milwaukee - 35th. (Not applying for MLS expansion)
Cincinnati - 36th.
Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-And - 37th. (Not applying for MLS expansion)
West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce - 38th. (Not applying for MLS expansion)
Austin - 39th. (Not applying for MLS expansion)
Las Vegas - 40th. (Not applying for MLS expansion)

Tampa Bay Rowdies - 11th. Obviously I want them in MLS. Pros: biggest TV market not in MLS. Tampa Bay Rowdies are a 42 year old brand name is, the biggest US soccer brand name (after the New York Cosmos) that are not yet in MLS. Solid fan base. Solid ownership group. Also the Tampa Bay area market is growing, with lots of the urban hipsters/millenial types, 20-40 year olds, younger age group, moving into the area. Cons: three other major league teams already in the area; so will have to work harder to get media attention. Proximity close to Orlando is said to be a con by some; to me that's actually a pro as it encourages close regional rivalry which Garber has spoken positively of.

Phoenix Rising - 12th. Last minute addition by MLS; from what we know now I don't think they are actually ready for MLS yet, but they were probably placed into the expansion race by Garber in order to put more pressure on the other markets. Of course this impression of mine might change if they make a lot of serious moves towards getting a SSS and other things into place. 

Detroit - 13th. Not a word out of this market; not sure how serious they are. No word about a stadium. Things might change later but I don't think this is a serious bid yet. Edit to add: recent annoucement that the Detroit ownership group will continue to try to buy out some land in Detroit that they have had their eyes on; so wait and see on this I guess.

Miami - 16th. Miami Beckham United, baring a last minute miracle, appears to be dead in the water. Just a question of when Garber will finally make it official and open their spot up to someone else. A miracle could happen of course but I'm not holding my breathe. It will be three years of this failure to launch coming up this February 5th.

Sacramento Republic - 20th. Have to rate their chances very highly as they have their SSS plan and everything else set up; just waiting now for MLS approval.

St. Louis - 21st. Still battling to get stadium funding. If they can get it done their chances are good, but still to be determined.

Charlotte - 22nd. Same situation as St. Louis at this point.

Raleigh-Durham (North Carolina FC) - 24th. They have their own stadium plans and I haven't heard that they have any need of government funding to expand it, so, if Charlotte doesn't make it, North Carolina FC (formerly the Carolina Railhawks) have to be given a good chance of making it.

Indianapolis Eleven - 27th. Last minute addition to the MLS expansion race; Indy Eleven were not among the original 10 mentioned by MLS nor were they invited at the last minute like Phoenix Rising were. Hard to say what their chances are; if they get a stadium situation going and bigger markets don't, particularly bigger markets in their region like St. Louis or Detroit, then they may have a chance. Maybe.

San Diego - 28th. Since losing the Chargers, San Diego has received a lot of attention from Garber for MLS expansion. They don't appear to need government money, so their chances look fairly good.

Nashville - 29th. They are trying to get some state funding for the stadium; not sure how much they depend on it. Nashville isn't "sexy" like San Diego but they could be a dark horse if enough of the bigger markets don't make it.

San Antonio FC - 31st. They have their stadium and all they need to do is expand it; AFAIK they don't need government funding. They have everything they need to be in MLS, but as a smaller market, I imagine they will be kept waiting until the larger markets get into MLS or are ruled out for various reasons. So like Nashville they are probably a dark horse, or will be one, if enough bigger markets fail in the expansion race.

Cincinnati FC - 36th. Like the other smaller markets, Cincinnati will probably only make it if enough of the bigger markets don't, however unlike the others they don't have a SSS plan. Yes, Cincinnati drew a lot of fans in USL last year. But, they don't have a stadium, nor do they appear to have any plans to get a stadium yet. So, they are very unlikely to get into MLS at this point. Not having a SSS plan at this point is pretty much a deal killer for getting into MLS; unless you are New York City FC Garber isn't going to make an exception for you. No SSS, no MLS.

Las Vegas - 40th. AFAIK Las Vegas is not actually in the MLS expansion race, but I'm mentioning Las Vegas because everyone else talks about Las Vegas as though they were an inevitable MLS candidate, because they are getting an NFL stadium, if the Oakland Raiders can't get one built in the Oakland area, and also because people assume that Las Vegas would be David Beckham's backup plan if Miami does not work out. However, the January 31st deadline is here, and there is no word of Las Vegas submitting a bid yet, that I have heard of. If the owners of the Oakland Raiders, and/or Sheldon Adelson (who is said to be interested in helping pay for the NFL stadium in Las Vegas), were interested in having an MLS team share their stadium, they should have submitted a bid. They didn't. Las Vegas city government was talking about hiring some consultants or something to look into possibly getting an MLS team in the future, but that is too little too late if they don't make the Jan. 31st deadline. MLS already said no to Las Vegas a few years ago; it is a very small market with relatively poor demographics. Las Vegas might work for NFL or NHL, but MLS is riskier. An NFL stadium in Las Vegas could make easy money hosting the occasional big international soccer friendly; hosting an MLS team is different.

Here is my WAG (wild @ss guess) about who will be MLS teams 24-28 (this assumes a lot: ie none of the cities currently trying to get government money will get it, those seeking to acquire land won't get it, etc., which is unlikely to be the case for everyone currently seeking to get a SSS deal done), these are basically the biggest clubs who currently have their SSS situation well in hand:

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Sacramento Republic
North Carolina FC
San Diego
San Antonio FC

I am assuming that Phoenix and Detroit are not serious bids at this point, and that Miami won't happen. I am also assuming that St. Louis and Charlotte won't get government financing and thus won't have SSS plans; this may change. I am also assuming that Nashville won't get their stadium plans together; that also could change. The five teams listed above all appear to have solid SSS plans in place that don't require government funding. That gives them the edge. As noted, things can change pretty fast so I don't doubt that I will be proven wrong soon enough. My predictions are therefore subject to change as new information comes to light. For instance, if Nashville gets state funding, they might possibly replace San Antonio. Or if St. Louis and/or Carolina do get government funding, then they might be in at the expense of San Antonio and maybe North Carolina. Maybe. We shall see how it shakes out. Edit to add: I'm also going to assume for the moment that Indy Eleven aren't a serious candidate yet and are simply trying to stay viable; however if they get their stadium situation in order and bigger markets don't, that could change.